I collect quotes from famous people, many of them experts in their field, who completely missed the mark in their prediction of the future. For example, a now famous quote: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” –Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943. Or going back a bit further in history: “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” –Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
So I was particularly interested to hear Rod Hutchins, CTO of Georgia Tech, explain his views on the Internet. Speaking at the Georgia Center for Advanced Telecommunications Technology’s (GCATT) Broadband 2020 symposium, Hutchins explained his view that “TCP/IP is the genetic material of a live being.” The Internet is in its infancy. It is like a caterpillar. A caterpillar does not understand what it is about to become, nor can it control or stop that what it is becoming. Hutchins believes we have no idea what the Internet is about to become but is quite sure that it will be amazing and beautiful – not that it matters because we can neither control nor stop it.
Georgia Tech President Dr. G.P. “Bud” Peterson opened the symposium with a similar thought – asking,“What do we need to do to prepare for a future we can’t even envision?” This basic idea that no one can predict what theIinternet of the future will look like or even all that it will be used for was a clear theme of this year’s symposium.
Dr. Nikil Jayant, Executive Director of GCATT focused his remarks on the need for gigabit broadband by pointing out many of the applications that will emerge as consumers of greater bandwidth. He named mobile augmented reality, massively multiplayer games, a convergence of gaming and television, and medical applications. Jayant showed a tele-pathology application that used digital slides of brain cells with a resolution of 35,000 x 20,000 pixels or 5.85 gigabits per slide. He then asked us to envision a 3-D slide with both zoom and focus control containing 265.9 gigabits pointing out that such a slide would take hours to transmit even on a gigabit link – a latency that isn’t acceptable if the patient is in the operating room. Jayant explained that the next generation of applications in tele-presence, tele-learning, tele-health haven’t been envisioned yet but they will require and consume a gigabit Internet.
Richard Calhoun, Program Director of the Georgia Technology Authority, emphasized that, “Georgia needs a concerted, sustainable effort on broadband.” He pointed to 60 broadband projects being carried out statewide in 2009 and referred people to GeorgiaBroadband for more information. Georgia has applied for $129 million across 22 applications for various economic recovery programs. Decisions on many of these applications will be received November 1.
Rod Hutchins introduced several demonstrations of distance learning using broadband connections. Georgia Tech has a partnership with Barrow County Schools. The Symposium audience was transported by high resolution video and audio into both the Nano-technology lab at Georgia Tech and the AP Chemistry lab at a Barrow County School. Students in the AP lab can interact with scientists at Tech and view live images from electron scanning microscopes. It was pointed out that most high school students in the U.S. don’t know what an electron scanning microscope is, much less have a chance to use one remotely.
Sid Ahuja, Vice President of Joint Ventures for Alcatel-Lucent Ventures, continued the discussion on the uses of gigabit broadband for tele-health. Ahuja discussed the proliferation of sensors around the Internet by predicting cell phones that can monitor heart and respiration or home health monitors that can transmit a wide range of data to special servers that analyze the data and notify health care professionals of problems. He also discussed remote support for complex surgeries using the kinds of imaging that Jayant displayed earlier in the day.
The final speaker, Dr. Eli Noam, Director of the Columbia Institute for Tele-Information, discussed the future of “UltraContent for UltraBroadband. Naom contends that in some ways the capabilities of the network determine the content. We began with 1st generation television – single channels that targeted the interests of the largest segment of the audience. 2nd generation TV is basically cable which featured more channels each with the potential for narrower focus – the Golf Channel for instance. 3rd Generation Internet TV will feature unlimited channels and even narrower focus – the Left Handed Golf Channel – he joked.
As we gain more bandwidth, Noam believes that the sensory experience will deepen. He believes that the sensory experience of media is rising by 8% per year based on his research. At this rate, the richness of media will pass that of the “real world” in 35 years. This has, Noam stated, interesting implications for couch potatoes and social interaction in general. Will we ever leave the couch? Why should we?
[Photo: Buddy Ray]
